18 грудня 2022 р.
Historical excursion: USA - USSR, USA - China
Forces of different direction and scalar have always acted In the geopolitical field. Their result showed who is the master in the house. Sometimes the world was ruled by only giant power. It happened as in the case of the USA and the USSR when there were two most powerful anticollinear vectors in the world space which balanced each other for some time. However as you know everything passes.
After the USSR left the field of competition his place one was taken by China. All major events in the world of the last thirty years are determined by a vector that is the sum of the power vectors of USA and China. Moreover the trend of development of human resource and economy of China is really impressive. According to the forecasts of various experts China can become the undisputed leader in the next decade.
Understanding this the US set itself the task of consolidating around itself as far as possible the might of as many countries as possible. And Rossia should be on their side in these plans. It was this idea that guided the policy pursued by the United States in relation to Rossia for the past twenty years. Everything would have happened that way as the USA thought if it were not for the centuries-old imperial ambitions of the Rossian rulers. As Pushkin, who was well versed in the whims of Rossian rulers wrote in Aesop's language:
She doesn't want to be a queen anymore
She wants to be a sovereign of the sea...
The desire to be the third Rome, i.e. to add one's own to the two specified vectors which was not only not collinear in one direction with the American one but on the contrary with an often-densely opposite component, became the beginning of Putin's inevitable movement and with him Rossia to the one described by Pushkin in that same fairy tale finale:
He looked - there was a dugout in front of him,
His old wife is sitting on the threshold,
And in front of her is a broken-down trough
But this is still hidden in the future. In real time the USA began to bite the Rossian Federation from time to time increasing the pressure of its jaws trying to make Rossia understand what they want from it and to direct it into the right coalition.
However the "third Rome" turned out to be not only "obtuse" and intractable but also aggressive. In the end it came to an ultimatum from Rossia to the USA and later to a bold demonstration by the USA of the reality of its intentions through aggression against Ukraine which expressed readiness to join NATO. And the USA could not forgive this. It is often thought that the USA could not had cut Rossia in parts over the past twenty years. They didn't have bite through but not because Rossia is such a strong country.
Here it is appropriate to ask the question: could not or did not want to? As the results of the far-from-full-force economic war of the West led by the United States with Rossia in 2022 showed the state of the latter's economy and the standard of living of people in it can quickly be sent into an accelerated decline. The latter is especially important because it causes dissatisfaction with the central government and given that the Rossian Federation is a loosely glued conglomerate of different ethnic groups and excellent spiritual and material capabilities and to the centrifugal movements of individual subjects. Therefore by making an effort the USA together with its partners could very likely direct Rossia down the path of disintegration. I have no doubt that it would not have taken twenty years in the present century to do so.
They could but. At first they did not want to break Rossia because of the desire as we have already mentioned. It didn't work out. Instead of this received furious opposition. What to do? Go to the second option: and to collapse the Rossian empire? And what will be the consequences of the collapse of Rossia for the United States? Who can predict with certainty? And here it is time to say a few words about the so-called analytical services of the USA more precisely how they have shown themselves recently.
Analytics as in the anecdote about the Chukchi the shaman and the meteorologist
Putin gathered the shamans and asked: "I want to go to Kyiv. Will I be lucky?"
Shamans performed a ritual and announced: in three days you will capture Kyiv.
The FSB overheard the conversation and confirmed in an analytical report to Putin that Rossia's war against Ukraine would be a three-day blitzkrieg.
The CIA managed to find out the contents and their analysts issued "their" analysis about the lightning defeat of Ukraine. The USA began to hastily evacuate its employees from Ukraine. Most likely the USA hadn't objective reliable and convincing information about the plans for the Rossia attack on Ukraine. Rather it was a "just in case" measure based on probability rather than absolutely accurate data.
Based on its analysis immediately after the Rossian attack the West convinced of its analytical conclusions offered Zelensky help in immediate evacuation and prepared to wait for the quick capitulation of Ukraine.
Fortunately for Ukraine analytics from both the US and Rossia turned out to be a Filkin's diploma. And the world saw that belief in the veracity of the conclusions of Rossian and American analysts - and not only these - hardly exceeds the probability raised to the degree of shaky uncertainty.
About the fiasco of analytical special services of Rossia the West and Ukraine
The dilemma is still not resolved
Real events have forced decision-making centers in the US to recognize the low probability of the truth of the conclusions of their own analytical services and presented them with a dilemma of disappointing choices which are influenced by several factors.
The first factor. Contrary to the probability of the described conclusions of the analysts one thing is certain. And this is China. Unlike the USA China is close to Rossian Siberia and the Far East and it is this part of Rossia that has the greatest economic and military potential including nuclear weapons.
A military defeat of Rossia would most likely lead to the beginning of the process of dividing the country into an indefinite number of entities with the uncontrolled transfer of nuclear weapons into their hands. And the geographical proximity of China to Rossia and the remoteness of the USA in this case would create conditions under which the significant economic and possibly nuclear potential of Siberia and the Far East in the process of soft diffusion or hard penetration would turned out on the side of the US adversary.
In which hands this potential will end up is the #1 issue at the geopolitical level.
If these resources go to China then the power vector from the East will be many times greater than the Western one and the world will most likely become unipolar.
The second factor. After the well-known events in Afghanistan the loss of Ukraine which the USA and NATO represent as their close partner and to which they promise all kinds of help will be perceived by the world as the end of the US's career as a world leader. The defeat of Ukraine will also cast doubt on the reliability of NATO and provoke the search and creation of an alternative. We can also talk about the losses of the European Union Britain and the increase in China's rate in international bookmakers.
In general Europe taking into account the presence of the most combat-capable Ukrainian army in the world and the huge military-industrial complex of its leading countries has every opportunity to create its own European Defense Organization (EDO) in the shortest possible time which could in terms of military power to claim the first place in the world
It is clear that the loss of Ukraine in the war with Rossia is extremely unacceptable for the USA. Taking into account these two factors and the actions of the American authorities it can be firmly said that they created a dilemma for the United States that has not yet been resolved. How to quickly bring the matter to the military defeat and disintegration of Rossia or to drag on with the war trying to determine the goals along the way? It is clear that selection directly affects the policy of the West providing weapons to Ukraine in the war against Rossia.
LEXIKOUKR EST. 2013